The 36th Annual MTV Video Music Awards (VMAs) take place this coming Monday, August 26.
Off the heels of our predictions for the 2019 BET Awards, we thought we would see if we could make lightning strike twice and predict this year’s award winners for the VMAs (check out Pitchfork for the full list).
Let’s dive in…
Note: Throughout this article, we’ll be referencing Tubular’s Video Ratings (TVR’s), a standardized set of metrics that allow content producers to measure and benchmark the performance of their videos relative to others. V30 is defined as the cumulative amount of views in the first 30 days after publication.
VMAs Video of the Year
The nominees for Video of the Year at this year’s VMAs are:
- 21 Savage: “a lot” [ft. J. Cole] – The video had a V30 of 55.4M.
- Billie Eilish: “bad guy” – Did you know that the teenage phenom is the first artist born in this century with a #1 hit single? Her video had a V30 of 115M.
- Ariana Grande: “thank u, next” – Earlier this year, we covered Ariana and TSwift in the battle of pop royalty. TSwift won then, but how about now? Ariana’s video had a V30 of 219M….
- Jonas Brothers: “Sucker” – After a brief hiatus, the brothers Jonas returned to the scene with their hit “Sucker.” The video scored a V30 of 90M.
- Lil Nas X: “Old Town Road (Remix)” [ft. Billy Ray Cyrus] – Lil Nas broke all sorts of records for his genre-bending hit single. Even if he doesn’t win, the song will go down in history, for sure. “Old Town Road”’s V30 was 143M.
- Taylor Swift: “You Need to Calm Down” – With a V30 of “only” 82.6M, things aren’t looking good for TSwift….
And the (projected) winner is… Ariana Grande’s “thank u, next”!
Artist of the Year
The nominees for ‘artist of the year’ are:
- Cardi B
- Billie Eilish
- Ariana Grande
- Jonas Brothers
- Shawn Mendes
By our analysis, the clear (projected) winner is our national treasure, Cardi.
Song of the Year
- Drake: “In My Feelings” – Inspiring the “in my feelings challenge” almost a year ago, the actual video had an impressive V30 of 107M views.
- Ariana Grande: “thank u, next” – With a V30 of 219M, it really seems like Ariana can’t lose.
- Jonas Brothers: “Sucker” – V30 of 90M
- Lady Gaga / Bradley Cooper: “Shallow” – Will the song mirror the film’s success? Looks likely that it won’t with a V30 of 66.7M.
- Lil Nas X: “Old Town Road (Remix)” [ft. Billy Ray Cyrus] – Ariana is poised to take this from Lil Nas X… Let the kid have one, Ariana! (V30 of 143M)
- Taylor Swift: “You Need to Calm Down” – V30 of 82.6M
If we’re judging solely based on our V30… Ariana can’t be stopped. She’s poised to take home Song of the Year, as well.
Best New Artist presented by Taco Bell
- Ava Max
- Billie Eilish
- Lil Nas X
What a list! According to the figure above, there are three front runners: Lil Nas X, Ava Max, and Billie Eilish.
But low and behold, Lil Nas X is projected to take this one! Congrats, young buck (if we’re right, that is).
Related Read: Battle of the Fast Food Chains: Who’s Winning on Social?
We’ve covered K-pop here before. The global phenomenon has recorded some of the highest V30s on record. It’s only right that the VMAs honor the genre this year.
Let’s see who the winner should be!
- BTS: “Boy With Luv” [ft. Halsey] – V30 of 282M
- BLACKPINK: “Kill This Love” – With a V30 of 284M, BLACKPINK narrowly beats out BTS. Will it beat the rest of the field too? Let’s find out!
- Monsta X: “Who Do You Love” [ft. French Montana] – V30 of 7.6M
- TOMORROW X TOGETHER: “Cat & Dog” – V30 of 19.7M
- NCT 127: “Regular” – V30 of 13.3M
- EXO: “Tempo” – V30 of 58.6M
There’s no debate who the #1 & 2 K-pop stars are. This time around, BTS should be playing second fiddle to the ladies in BLACKPINK.
- 2 Chainz: “Rule the World” [ft. Ariana Grande] – V30 of 11.6M
- 21 Savage: “a lot” [ft. J. Cole] – V30 of 55.4M
- Cardi B: “Money” – V30 of 36.8M
- DJ Khaled: “Higher” [ft. Nipsey Hussle and John Legend] – V30 of 20.8M
- Lil Nas X: “Old Town Road (Remix)” [ft. Billy Ray Cyrus] – V30 of 143M
- Travis Scott: “SICKO MODE” [ft. Drake] – V30 of 72.6M
Ok, the old head in us has difficulty classifying this as “hip hop,” but it doesn’t matter. It looks like Lil Nas X will get at least one this year. Congrats!
- Anderson .Paak: “Make It Better” [ft. Smokey Robinson] – V30 of 2.3M
- Childish Gambino: “Feels Like Summer” – V30 of 54.3M
- H.E.R.: “Could’ve Been” [ft. Bryson Tiller] – V30 of 3.7M
- Alicia Keys: “Raise a Man” – V30 of 6.6M
- Ella Mai: “Trip” – V30 of 17.4M
- Normani: “Waves” [ft. 6LACK] – V30 of 5.1M
We projected that Bino would sweep the BET Awards earlier this year. Will he take this too?
Certainly looks like it, taking in a strong V30 of 54.3M.
Why did we select this as the last genre to cover? Para la cultura…
- Anuel AA / Karol G: “Secreto” – V30 of 237M
- Bad Bunny: “MIA” [ft. Drake] – V30 of 207M
- benny blanco / Tainy / Selena Gomez / J Balvin: “I Can’t Get Enough” – V30 of 99M
- Daddy Yankee: “Con Calma” [ft. Snow] – V30 of 157M
- Maluma: “Mala Mía” – V30 of 72.3M
- ROSALÍA / J Balvin: “Con Altura” [ft. El Guincho] – V30 of 89.4M
In the battle between Bad Bunny and Anuel AA, the latter is projected to take the award. Shocking considering how big ROSALÍA and J Balvin’s “Con Altura” was this year. We’re certain we’ll see you back next year, ROSALÍA.
So there we have it. Tubular’s projected winners of the 2019 VMAs. Check back next week when we update this article after the awards show airs!
How many of these do you think we’ll get right this time?